Goodbye to the 2°C target: Climate change is out of control, expert warns

The planet is warming at a much faster rate than previously projected and The 2°C limit set by the Paris Agreement is no longer achievable, according to a new study led by renowned climatologist James Hansen. The research, published in Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, argues that reduced sulfur pollution from shipping has accelerated global warming more than expected, in combination with the continued burning of fossil fuels. If drastic measures are not taken, the 2°C threshold will be exceeded in 2045, which would lead to even more devastating extreme weather events. However, other scientists have pointed out that the study's calculations may be overestimating the impact of warming.

The impact of pollution and the domino effect of global warming

Hansen's team at Columbia University argues that the removal of polluting aerosols from shipping, which previously partially blocked solar radiation, has been a key factor in rising temperatures. The additional warming caused by reducing these emissions could be up to five times greater than estimated in previous studies. This statement places the new analysis at the most alarming end of the spectrum of scientific projections on climate change.

The main concern is that this Accelerated warming could hasten the arrival of irreversible climate tipping points, such as the collapse of Atlantic ocean currents (AMOC), massive melting of the Arctic and sea level rise by several meters. According to the study, if urgent measures are not taken, The AMOC could collapse in the next 20 to 30 years, drastically altering the planet's weather patterns. and would make warming even more extreme.

Scientific discrepancies and competing models

While Hansen's study is a stark warning, not all scientists agree with its conclusions. Dr Zeke Hausfather, an independent climatologist, called the study “a useful contribution” but cautioned that it is at the high end of current estimates.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, based on computer models, establishes that climate sensitivity to CO₂ is between 2.5°C and 4°C for each doubling of emissions. Hansen and his team, however, estimate that this sensitivity is 4.5°C, which would explain their more alarming projection.

Other experts have also pointed out that the method used by Hansen's team to assess the impact of reducing marine pollutants may be oversimplified. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Gavin Schmidt said the analysis does not take into account other variables, such as changes in China's emissions and internal climate variability.

Temperature records and the surprise factor of global warming

Recent data supports the idea that global warming is at a critical point. January 2025 became the hottest January on record, defying expectations that La Niña cooling would lower global temperatures. This unexpected increase suggests the planet is trapped in a stronger warming loop than previously anticipated.

Hansen’s study also highlights how the climate crisis is already “supercharging” extreme weather events around the world. With only 1.3°C of average warming in recent years, natural disasters have devastated entire communities, suggesting that exceeding 2°C would bring catastrophic consequences.

Is there a solution? Drastic measures and geoengineering

Faced with this discouraging outlook, Hansen proposes a set of radical actions to curb global warming. The scientist advocates the implementation of a global carbon tax, where fossil fuels are taxed and the income is redistributed to the population.

Hansen also supports the rapid expansion of nuclear energy as an alternative to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. But his most controversial proposal is research into solar geoengineering, which would imply block some of the solar radiation to artificially cool the planet.

Although he clarifies that he does not recommend the immediate implementation of these techniques, he insists that future generations must be aware of their potential and risks.We cannot prohibit young people from exploring solutions to avoid climate catastrophe,“Hansen concludes.

The political challenge and the resistance of economic interests

The study not only addresses the scientific problem, but also the lack of effective political action. Hansen strongly criticises the influence of private interests in climate policies and argues that in democracies, power should be in the hands of citizens, not corporations.

"The fundamental problem is that fossil fuel waste continues to be dumped into the atmosphere at no cost," the scientist said. According to him, the solution is to correct this market failure and create an economic system that makes people pay the true price of carbon.

A hotter future with increasing risks

Although the scientific community continues to debate the accuracy of Hansen's predictions, his message is clear: The world is warming faster than expected and the window of opportunity to curb climate change is closing.

If humanity does not take drastic measures in the next decade, Global warming could exceed 2°C much sooner than expected, triggering irreversible changes in the planet's climate system.

With the Earth's climate fate at stake, the question is no longer whether climate change is real, but if humanity has the political and technological will to stop it before it is too late.